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Dec 19, 2023

RealClimate: Unforced Variations: Jan 2022

XRRC says 2 Jan 2022 at 7:47 PM In response to the false and distorted

XRRC says

2 Jan 2022 at 7:47 PM

In response to the false and distorted inaccurate assertions raised by MA Rodger1) I am not a troll2) I misrepresented nothing.3) I presented science papers extracts with refs4) I pointed to related science papers findings

quoting accurately what was written in full —

Roughly speaking, summarizing, The Earth's Energy Imbalance was tracking ~0.4 W/m² before 2010 and now had increased during the past decade to about 0.9 W/m². This year it could reach above ~1.0 W/m², depending on the data from Sep-Dec. This relates to both Hansen and others commentaries about decreasing albedo likely due to reductions in shipping derived aerosols therefore increasing rates of global warming relative to actual emission increases (eg CERES data http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2021.pdf ); as well as the reports of increasing underwater melting of Antarctic and GIS ice shelves grounding lines etc etc etc.https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/12/unforced-variations-dec-2021/#comment-799658

Synonyms & Near Synonyms for relates (to) appertains (to), applies (to), bears (on), pertains (to), refers (to) affects, concerns, involves, touches, embroils, ensnares, entangles, implicates

Hansen also says in Dec "Global warming has accelerated in the past several years, Earth's energyimbalance has increased dramatically,…." http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/NovemberTUpdate+BigClimateShort.23December2021.pdf and see his Refs there.

In early Dec Hansen says: "The total energy imbalance during the past half century averaged about half a watt per square meter a decade ago, but in the past decade it has increased to almost 1 W/m2." http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/BrightFuture.03December2021.pdf and see his Refs there.

Plus another ref shows quoting the Global Climate Observing System, co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission-UNESCO, International Science Council and United Nations Environment Programme. :

Reporting in the journal Earth System Science Data, the group of more than 30 researchers from scientific institutions around the world tracked and quantified global heat storage from 1960 to 2018 to answer the question "where does the heat go"?The new study represents the most accurate, state-of-the-art heat inventory study to date. It indicates that the Earth Energy Imbalance continues to grow unabated and has doubled in the past decade (2010-2018) compared against the 1971-2018 mean value. The results also show that EEI not only continues, it increases: the EEI amounted to 0.87 + 0.12 W/m2 during 2010-2018.https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/where-does-heat-go

Which of course is reporting on Karina von Schuckmann et al. https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ w’ quotes previously provided.

The range of reports on climate science are extensive and people here and elsewhere will rightly draw their own conclusions what value / weight each published paper might mean to them, and what papers findings relate to other's findings and data. Recently RC through Gavin indicated caution over the rainfall increase suggested in a paper using new CMIP6 models. But Gavin did not label readers here as trolls or misrepresent them because they had posted REFs to that very paper in the week before.

However, M A Rodger's series of ‘complaints’ and false accusations began with this very simple reference posting of a new article by James Hansenhttps://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/12/unforced-variations-dec-2021/#comment-799527

XRRC says 25 Dec 2021 at 3:54 AMGlobal warming of at least 2°C is now baked into Earth's future. (by or before 2050) Dr James Hansenhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/NovemberTUpdate+BigClimateShort.23December2021.pdf

Which was a verbatim quote sub-heading from Hansen's article

Hansen goes on to say: "Karina von Schuckmann was a post-doc when she first published the ocean data more than a decade ago. She's now the leading expert in the world in analyzing Argo float data at Mercator Ocean International in France. I describe her as the sentinel for the home planet, because Earth's energy imbalance is the crucial number telling us how much additional global warming is already in the pipeline."Last year Karina and other experts1 concluded that Earth's energy imbalance had increased during the past decade to about 0.9 W/m2. That energy imbalance, by itself, will drive global temperature above 1.5°C, even if greenhouse gases (GHGs) suddenly stop increasing.

Hansen goes on to ref another "Leon Simons has shown that the temporal and spatial distributions of the perturbation to Earth's energy balance coincide with the timing of tightened controls on the sulfur content of maritime fuels and with a satellite-measured decrease of solar radiation reflected from the heavily-trafficked regions of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. The chief mechanism is the effect of aerosols on cloud cover and cloud albedo."

See also posts on Dessler and Zelinka https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/12/unforced-variations-dec-2021/#comment-799662

These are things and more have been said and reported on. Why shoot the messenger who is making no scientific claims or false assertions whatsoever about this information but simply providing short quotes and refs from such papers and reports?

Readers and/or moderators can decide for themselves who has been the ad hominem ‘troll’ and who has been ‘misrepresenting who and what’ was published in science journals & reports subsequently posted here on UV. I humbly submit it was not myself.